Going Down to Kansai Again

CJ gets ready for a bath before we head out.

After a lot of questions, calls to home, and talking with my friends, I decided to take a break from Tokyo and go to the much safer region of Kansai. An Orthodox priest's family had invited me to come down and spend a day or so with them in Kyoto before they went to Hiroshima. Luckily, I have a sempai near Kyoto who offered me a place to stay with him, should I need it.

At this point, I need it.

I was able to get one of the last tickets on a night bus from Tokyo to Kyoto for the super-sketchy night bus on Thursday. My plan is/was to organize my room for the new roommate and just in case I don't come back, pack and take the bus, arrive in Kyoto on Friday morning, stay with the priest and his family for a while, then move in with my friend Kai and then with my friend Gina. Fool proof plan since I have a friend with me every step of the way. But, of course, Thursday night is the time when I have to get all emotional and start acting like I'm never coming back. I started going around and taking pictures and videos of things, crying at every turn, saying good-bye like I'm moving away to a new city forever, and basically being a baby about the whole thing.

Hmmm, left-overs! I actually made a mountain of this
stuff, but somehow managed to eat it all.

In retrospect, I did eat really well that night, because I had to cook all of my remaining veggies and tofu in a last soup so nothing would be left in the fridge after I left. I wolfed it down, hoping that it would keep me filled all night, but it didn't (booo!!). But for added fun, I got to use the ingredients that other girls before me had left behind (yeah!!).

I was only allowed to carry one large bag, one small bag, and one purse due to the bus's rules, but that was more than enough for me: after traveling with Gina and from my experience as a pk, I am well trained in the Tetris-like art of packing. After I got all my stuff packed and moved into the lobby, I went back for my food. Daddy had made sure to stress that I needed to carry nonperishable foods that needed no prep-work just in case I found that Kyoto was just as hard pressed for food as Tokyo has become. So I packed almonds, dried apples, a log of salami, crackers, and tuna packets into any extra crevices in my bags. I didn't think that I would need it all on the little trip, but I figured that I could always give it to Kai in return for staying at his house. As for my last loaf of bread, I gave that and a bottle of Meghan's Coka Cola to Matthew, who was staying in Tokyo longer than the rest of our family.


Lastly, I interrupted Miki in the shower and told her that I'd be leaving in an hour. She followed me about for awhile as I sobbed all over Keyaki, then gave me a few presents before I left: she called her mom and let me talk with her one last time (her mom was really supportive this whole time and invited me back to their house should I ever come back to Japan), gave me a small piece of chocolate for the bus ride, and gave me a face mask for the trip down there (I think that the mask was supposed to help keep other people's germs off me and protect against the radiation somehow). She even walked me to the bus stop and used her Wadaiko-super-strength to tote my bags the whole way, but kept remarking, "You're really taking all of this with you? Unbelievable!" I don't bring many bags, but I jam-pack them full of stuff!

Instead of taking the bus, since the bus schedule was all out of wack, I got a taxi ride with another ICU exchange student named Kara. She and I were in the same Japanese class, so I knew her a little. She was actually up in Sendai when it all happened and was getting ready to run away to Okinawa that night. At the train station, we went our separate ways. Getting to the meeting place for the bus was a hassle, sine it wasn't an official stopping place, just a sidewalk that the company commender at the wee hours of the night. When I got on the bus, no one told me where to sit, but I had heard someone say that people going to Kyoto were in the front and those going to Osaka were in the back, so I sat in the front, only to have a flustered couple ask me to move to the last seat in the last row in the back. The bus was cramped, but I was used to not having much space in Tokyo. I was just happy to be sitting down out of the cold wind (since I had shown up to the meeting place an hour and a half ahead of time as to not miss the bus). I decided to take a nap, and when I woke up, the bus was stopped at this rest area and it was snowing!!! I got back on the bus took another nap, and woke up in Kyoto around 7 am.

At least I had made it to Kansai! I lugged everything to the nearest McDonald's and had a breakfast sandwich while I waited to get warm again and meet Marie, my pk friend from Canada.

What's Next?

A few things have happened during the last 5 hours. 

First, my dorm has enacted a restricted entry/exit rule for the next 1-3 days. Due to the radiation scare, students, parents, and professors are paranoid about the radiation levels. They are closing off the vents, turning off the air-conditioning, taping the windows shut, and refusing some students to return from outside. Seeing this intense fear of the air (even when researchers claim that Tokyo levels of radiation are not dangerous to human health) has me growing more and more fearful. I would rather not have to deal with such regulations and fears.

Second, schools in America and other countries have started recalling students to the states. My friends and I were huddled on the sofa when one of the boys received and email demanding the other 5 students from his home university leave Japan as soon as possible. Wittenberg has suggested that we leave, but has still left it our own decision since so many of my classmates are already in Kansai, however, there has been talk that they will also issue a summons back to the states.

Finally, some family friends from New York are going to the south and have offered me a chance to go with them and be with someone familiar. After the earthquake yesterday morning and last night, receiving requests from my family in America, and seeing the students becoming so frightened, I have decided that making the move to the south for a while would be the best option for my safety, health, and peace of mind.

Now, earlier at night I was laughing and joking with my friends, eating at a tabehoudai in Kichijoji. Then, when we got back to the dorm, and I saw the others students worrying, I was freaking out. Now, I'm not in tears, or jumping off the walls, but I'm getting a little antsy as to why my friends and I are some of the only ones who haven't gone to pieces from fear. We were having great time at dinner, when we got another quake. This time, we were all underground and the size of it was pretty surprising. By the time we got home, everyone had started freaking out, again. So, it looks like I'm off to the south (or west, depending on how you see it) for a little break. I hope that things clear over so I can come back for spring term. I'll just hang out down there for a while.

The Earthquake, the Nuclear Crisis

I'm not quite sure what to think anymore. After the nuclear plants started to break, then one exploded, everyone got incredibly scared that there would be a nuclear explosion that would destroy Japan and spread to other countries. Some students are running away and other left the country already, but I can't really afford that sort of thing. Witt is saying that the choice to come home is up to each student, and the American embassy hasn't released an official report saying we should escape. What about everything I have left here? What if the scare isn't that great? Where are the real experts? I can't understand this sort of thing, let alone in JAPANESE!!!

Phew.

This is an article/thread that sort of cheered me up, but I don't know if it is completely trustworthy. I guess, at this point, I'm just trying to look at all possibilities.

This thread is intended to move the various discussions about nuclear power, the safety of Japan's nuclear reactors, and related issues out of the general thread about the disaster in Japan. Nuclear talk has overwhelmed the discussion in that thread, along with people coming in asking for information about whether it's going to be another Chernobyl.
But first, a FAQ (updated at 8:15AM GMT, March 14th):

What in the hell is going on here?
In the aftermath of the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, two nuclear power stations on the east coast of Japan have been experiencing problems. They are theFukushima Daiichi ("daiichi" means "number one") and Fukushima Daini ("number two") sites, operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (or TEPCO). Site one has six reactors, and site two has four. The problematic reactors are #1, #2, and #3 at site one, which are the oldest of the ten and were due to be decommissioned this year.
In short, the earthquake combined with the tsunami have impaired the cooling systems at these reactors, which has made it difficult for TEPCO to shut them down completely. Reactor #1 is now considered safe after crew flooded the reactor with sea water. Reactor #3 was starting this process as this was originally written (6:00PM CST/11:00PM GST on March 13th). Site crew began preparing to add sea water to reactor #2 around 7:30AM GMT on March 14th, if a cooling procedure does not work.
The four reactors at site two did not have their systems impaired and have shut down normally.
Can this cause a nuclear explosion?
No. It is physically impossible for a nuclear power station to explode like a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear bombs work by causing a supercritical fission reaction in a very small space in an unbelievably small amount of time. They do this by using precisely-designed explosive charges to combine two subcritical masses of nuclear material so quickly that they bypass the critical stage and go directly to supercritical, and with enough force that the resulting supercritical mass cannot melt or blow itself apart before all of the material is fissioned.
Current nuclear power plants are designed around subcritical masses of radioactive material, which are manipulated into achieving sustained fission through the use of neutron moderators. The heat from this fission is used to convert water to steam, which drives electric generator turbines. (This is a drastic simplification.) They are not capable of achieving supercritical levels; the nuclear fuel would melt before this could occur, and a supercritical reaction is required for an explosion to occur.
Making a nuclear bomb is very difficult, and it is completely impossible for a nuclear reactor to accidentally become a bomb. Secondary systems, like cooling or turbines, can explode due to pressure and stress problems, but these are not nuclear explosions.
Is this a meltdown?
Technically, yes, but not in the way that most people think.
The term "meltdown" is not used within the nuclear industry, because it is insufficiently specific. The popular image of a meltdown is when a nuclear reactor's fuel core goes out of control and melts its way out of the containment facility. This has not happened and is unlikely to happen.
What has happened in reactor #1 and #3 is a "partial fuel melt". This means that the fuel core has suffered damage from heat but is still largely intact. No fuel has escaped containment. Core #2 may have experienced heat damage as well, but the details are not known yet. It is confirmed that reactor #2's containment has not been breached.
How did this happen? Aren't there safety systems?
When the earthquakes in Japan occurred on March 11th, all ten reactor cores "scrammed", which means that their control rods were inserted automatically. This shut down the active fission process, and the cores have remained shut down since then.
The problem is that even a scrammed reactor core generates "decay heat", which requires cooling. When the tsunami arrived shortly after the earthquake, it damaged the external power generators that the sites used to power their cooling systems. This meant that while the cores were shut down, they were still boiling off the water used as coolant.
This caused two further problems. First, the steam caused pressure to build up within the containment vessel. Second, once the water level subsided, parts of the fuel rods were exposed to air, causing the heat to build up more quickly, leading to core damage from the heat.
What are they doing about it?
From the very beginning, TEPCO has had the option to flood the reactor chambers with sea water, which would end the problems immediately. Unfortunately, this also destroys the reactors permanently. Doing so would not only cost TEPCO (and Japanese taxpayers) billions of dollars, but it would make that reactor unavailable for generating electricity during a nationwide disaster. The sea water method is a "last resort" in this sense, but it has always been an option.
To avoid this, TEPCO first took steps to bring the cooling systems back online and to reduce the pressure on the inside of the containment vessel. This involved bringing in external portable generators, repairing damaged systems, and venting steam and gases from inside the containment vessel. These methods worked for reactor #2 at site one, prior to complications; reactors four through six were shut down before for inspection before the earthquake hit.
In the end, TEPCO decided to avoid further risk and flooded reactor #1 with sea water. It is now considered safely under control. Reactor #3 is currently undergoing this process, and reactor #2 may undergo it if a venting procedure fails.
The four reactors at site two did not have their external power damaged by the tsunami, and are therefore operating normally, albeit in a post-scram shutdown state. They have not required any venting, and reactor #3 is already in full cold shutdown.
Is a "China Syndrome" meltdown possible?
No, any fuel melt situation at Fukushima will be limited, because the fuel is physically incapable of having a runaway fission reaction. This is due to their light water reactor design.
In a light water reactor, water is used as both a coolant for the fuel core and as a "neutron moderator". What a neutron moderator does is very technical (you can watch a lecture which includes this information here), but in short, when the neutron moderator is removed, the fission reaction will stop.
An LWR design limits the damage caused by a meltdown, because if all of the coolant is boiled away, the fission reaction will not keep going, because the coolant is also the moderator. The core will then only generate decay heat, which while dangerous and strong enough to melt the core, is not nearly as dangerous as an active fission reaction.
The containment vessel at Fukushima should be strong enough to resist breaching even during a decay heat meltdown. The amount of energy that could be produced by decay heat is easily calculated, and it is possible to design a container that will resist it. If it is not, and the core melts its way through the bottom of the vessel, it will end up in a large concrete barrier below the reactor. It is nearly impossible that a fuel melt caused by decay heat would penetrate this barrier. A containment vessel failure like this would result in a massive cleanup job but no leakage of nuclear material into the outside environment.
This is all moot, however, as flooding the reactor with sea water will prevent a fuel melt from progressing. TEPCO has already done this to reactor #1, and is in the process of doing it to #3. If any of the other reactors begin misbehaving, the sea water option will be available for those as well.
What was this about an explosion?
One of the byproducts of reactors like the ones at Fukushima is hydrogen. Normally this gas is vented and burned slowly. Due to the nature of the accident, the vented hydrogen gas was not properly burned as it was released. This led to a build up of hydrogen gas inside the reactor #1 building, but outside the containment vessel.
This gas ignited, causing the top of the largely cosmetic external shell to be blown off. This shell was made of sheet metal on a steel frame and did not require a great deal of force to be destroyed. The reactor itself was not damaged in this explosion, and there were only four minor injuries. This was a conventional chemical reaction and not a nuclear explosion.
You see what happened in this photo. Note that other than losing the sheet metal covering on the top, the reactor building is intact. No containment breach has occurred.

At about 2:30AM GMT on March 14th, a similar explosion occurred at the reactor #3 building. This explosion was not unexpected, as TEPCO had warned that one might occur. The damage is still being assessed but it has been announced that the containment vessel was not breached and that the sea water process is continuing.
Around 7:30AM GMT on March 14th, it was announced that the explosion at reactor #2 has damaged the already limping cooling systems of reactor #2. It may also receive the sea water treatment if they are unable to use a venting procedure to restart the cooling systems.
Is there radiation leakage?
The radiation levels outside the plant are higher than usual due to the release of radioactive steam. These levels will go down and return to their normal levels, as no fuel has escaped containment.
Here is a chart showing the effects of various radiation poisoning levels. For perspective, note that this chart starts at 1 Gy, equivalent to 1 Sv; the radiation outside the problematic Fukushima reactors is being measured in micro-Svs per hour. The highest reported levels outside the Fukushima reactors has been around 1000 to 1500 micro-Svs per hour. This means that one would have to stay in this area for four to six weeks, 24 hours a day, without protection in order to experience the lowest level of radiation poisoning, which while unpleasant is not normally fatal. And this level will not stay where it is.
Also note the chart of normal radiation exposure levels from things like medical x-rays and airline flights.
There have also been very minor releases of radioactive reactor byproducts like iodine and cesium along with the steam. This material is less radioactive than the typical output of coal power plants. It is significant mainly as an indicator of the state of the reactor core.
I read that there's a plume of radioactive material heading across the Pacific.
In its current state, the steam blowing east from Japan across the pacific is less dangerous than living in Denver for a year. If it makes it across the ocean, it will be almost undetectable by the time it arrives, and completely harmless as the dangerous elements in the steam will have decayed by then.
What's this about fuel rods being exposed to the air?
When the coolant levels inside the reactor get low enough, the tops of the fuel rods will be exposed to the air inside the containment vessel. They have not been exposed to the external atmosphere and the containment vessels are all intact.
Can this end up like Chernobyl?
No, it cannot. for several reasons.

• Chernobyl used graphite as a neutron moderator and water as a coolant. For complicated reasons, this meant that as the coolant heated up and converted to steam, the fission reaction intensified, converting even more water to steam, leading to a feedback effect. The Fukushima reactors use water as both the coolant and the neutron moderator, which means that as the water heats up and converts to steam, the reaction slows down instead. (The effect of the conversion of water coolant to steam on the performance of a nuclear reactor is known as the "void coefficient", and can be either positive or negative.)

• Chernobyl was designed so that as the nuclear fuel heated up, the fission reaction intensified, heating the core even further, causing another feedback effect. In the Fukushima reactors, the fission reaction slows down as the fuel heats up. (The effect of heating of the nuclear fuel on the performance of a nuclear reactor is known as the "temperature coefficient", and can also be positive or negative.)

• Chernobyl's graphite moderator was flammable, and when the reactor exploded, the radioactive graphite burned and ended up in the atmosphere. The Fukushima reactors use water as a neutron moderator, which is obviously not flammable.

Note that while Chernobyl used light water as a coolant (as distinct from heavy water), it was not a "light water reactor". The term LWR refers strictly to reactors that use light water for both cooling and neutron moderation.
The news said this was the worst nuclear power accident since Chernobyl, though.
It's the only nuclear power plant accident of its type since Chernobyl. It's easy to be the worst in a sample size of one.
Is this like Three Mile Island?
There are similarities. The final effect on the world is likely to be similar: no deaths, minimal external contamination, and a tremendous PR disaster for the nuclear industry due to bad reporting by the media.
How can I keep up with developments?
The western media has been very bad about reporting this event, due to a combination of sensationalist reporting, ignorance, and the use of inexact or unexplained terminology.
One of the safe sources of information is the TEPCO site, which has been posting press releases on a regular basis. Unfortunately, this site is often unresponsive due to the immense traffic it is receiving.
The important thing to remember is that most of the "experts" appearing on the news are engaging in speculation. Very few of them are restricting themselves to what they can be sure about, and those that are have often been misrepresented.
Where can I find more information about these issues?
Reading:

• Timeline and data sheets for the incident by the Nuclear Energy Institute

• The International Atomic Energy Agency
 is providing regular announcements

• Wikipedia on light water reactors and nuclear weapon design

• The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Systems manual - the Fukushima reactors are BWRs, a subset of LWRs

• More about BWRs

• Tokyo Electric Power Company
 site with press releases - currently hard to reach due to traffic

Video:

• "Physics for Future Presidents" lecture ten, on nuclear weapons and nuclear reactors

• Footage of the hydrogen explosion at reactor #1

Photos:

• before
 and after satellite photos of Fukushima site one

The Earthquake, News Stories

These are the sites and stories that I'm following right now

• Japan's Metereological Agency says there is a 70% chance of at least a magnitude-7 quake in the next few days, with a 50% chance in the three days after that.
• Wall of Water - caught on home video at the coast
• Help is coming from abroad, hopefully it gets here soon
• New numbers from the first hit areas
• Before and After: Sendai airport

The Earthquake, "Where were you?"

Since the earthquake, everyone I've reunited with has asked, "So, where were you?" We want to find out how close people were, if they realized what was happening when they felt it, and how soon they were able to find a way back home. It really reminds me of 9/11, where everyone recounts where they were when they first heard the news or when the towers were first hit. As I said in the last post, a few of my friends were back home in their respective countries. Here are some of the more interesting stories my friends had to tell me.

Jerry was in his room when it happened, but wasn't sure what to think because he couldn't compare the feeling of this earthquake to any other one. Should he leave? Was this a normal intensity? He left his room, but the only other boy in his area was named Ryan and he didn't know what to think of the quake either. They saw the walls of glass and metal beams on their floor shaking, but no one had told them what to do in this sort of emergency. They just stood in the hallway, away from the glass, until the largest amount of shaking was done. Then Jerry returned to his room and went online to find out he had just experienced Japan's worst recorded quake.

Kaze was closer to me than anyone else from our group. He was shopping in Kichijoji when the ground started to shake. Actually, he was playing with a toy Godzilla when the first shakes started to happen. Living in Taiwan, he was used to earthquakes and thought that the Japanese were overreacting when he first saw girls curl up into balls in the streets and people dive towards the pavement. After going back to the original store to buy the toy Godzilla doll, he was able to return home and find out more of what happened by bike.

Meghan was meeting with a veterinary student to whom she's been teaching English. He had just gotten back to Japan from America and was excited to tell her of his studies there. As they were speaking in Starbucks, they felt the shock. At first, Meghan thought it was fun, but started to to wonder why everyone was so worried and surprised. She was prepared to sit and wait it out, but her student rushed her outside and waited with her until all the shocks were done and she could get home.

Matthew (not Gan-san, but a boy from Australia) was swimming in the ICU pool for some extra exercise this spring break when the earthquake reached the campus. The entire pool turned into a mini tsunami as the water splashed against the windows, emptied out the larger pool, and flooding the changing rooms. The swimmers clutched at the metal  ladders on the side of the pool as they were tossed around like buoys. Even though he lived in a distant city, luck would have it that he had ridden his bike to school that day and that he knew the road home well. He was able to return home easily, but his host mother had to walk 3 hours home since the trains had stopped running by that point.

Another boy in my dorm was 5 kilometers from the nuclear reactor and was able to take pictures of the initial heat explosion and smoke cloud on his iphone. He was visiting his grandparents at the time, and they refuse to leave the area, but sent him back to Tokyo yesterday.

Meghan, as I had mentioned before, was trapped with a friend at the Tokyo Disney theme parks and was not able to return until Saturday morning.

Yuta was driving near Yokohama and was not really bothered by the earthquake because of the shock absorption in his tires. Luckily, he made it home to find his family and home completely fine. The Zelkova kids were able to contact him through facebook the day of the earthquake.

Yu-chan, a senior in the Wadaiko club, was finally able to contact her father a few nights ago. He was working in the Sendai area during the earthquake, but is finally doing well now.

This is a fascinating group of Tweets from Japan during the first day. We all experienced the earthquake from different perspectives, and it wasn't until we came together to see how each person was able to deal with it. Since Friday, more and more students are evacuating the area for Kansai or leaving the country. We don't know where to go or what to believe now, but those of us who are staying are trying to find out as much as we can and help each other stay prepared. If there is anything that the world can do now, it would be to pray for us in the next few days and to donate to various relief efforts. More information to come later. Take care - we'll do the same here.